S&P 500Nasdaq 100Dow JonesRussell 2000VIXTechnologyCommunication ServicesConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrialsMaterialsReal EstateUtilitiesSemiconductorsSoftwareCloudArtificial IntelligenceCybersecurityInternetBanksInsuranceBiotechPharmaceuticalsMedical DevicesOil & GasClean EnergyRetailHomebuildersTravel & LeisureAirlinesAutomakers & EVGold & MinersIndustrial MetalsREITsAerospace & DefenseMediaTelecomS&P 500Nasdaq 100Dow JonesRussell 2000VIXTechnologyCommunication ServicesConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrialsMaterialsReal EstateUtilitiesSemiconductorsSoftwareCloudArtificial IntelligenceCybersecurityInternetBanksInsuranceBiotechPharmaceuticalsMedical DevicesOil & GasClean EnergyRetailHomebuildersTravel & LeisureAirlinesAutomakers & EVGold & MinersIndustrial MetalsREITsAerospace & DefenseMediaTelecom
← All articles
Foundations4 min read

Evidence over hype: judging a system honestly

Any system can show a great week. The questions that matter are harder: over how many decisions? With what drawdown? And is the sample large enough to mean anything?

Three honest metrics: expectancy (the average outcome per decision, in risk terms), maximum drawdown (the worst peak-to-trough stretch), and sample size (how many results the numbers are based on). A great expectancy on twelve trades tells you almost nothing.

Be suspicious of anything that hides drawdown, omits sample size, or leads with cherry-picked winners. Transparency isn't a feature to bolt on — it's the difference between a tool and a sales pitch.

Hold InfoHive to the same standard: evidence, shown plainly, with the context to judge it for yourself.

Want this thinking built into your workflow?

Educational content from InfoHive — decision-support and market-intelligence tools, not financial advice.